The world is not usually morally clear, particularly when discussing events with global impact that involve millions of people. There is also an unfortunate modern tendency to think in absolutes about subtle political and moral questions about which reasonable people can disagree. We often vote and argue as though our real goal is not to solve the problems that every society has, but rather, to fling our political opponents into the sun.
And yet, there are some issues that really are that simple, and we need to remind ourselves of their simplicity despite attempts to complicate them. The War of Ukrainian Independence is one such example where we need to keep several facts clearly in mind. Russia has chosen to launch a war of imperial aggression and aggrandizement against its neighbor, with the aim of destroying that nation's political independence and identity. While doing so, it has committed crimes as serious as any seen in history. Commentators on Russian state TV have celebrated and encouraged waging war against civilians, women and children. If Russia is permitted to conquer Ukraine, these crimes will continue, they will just be comfortably out of our sight and we can pretend they aren't happening. If Russia is permitted to conquer Ukraine, it will be emboldened to try similar "special operations" in Moldova, Georgia, and the Baltic States, under the guise of "protecting Russians." The Ukrainian people have proven willing and able to fight against this aggression beyond anybody's expectation, but can only do so with continued Western support. To cut off this support because, well, we're bored, it's expensive, we have problems at home, and the war isn't ending fast enough for us, would be a betrayal not only of Ukraine, but of the values we in the West say we hold dear: national sovereignty and self-determination, freedoms of speech, religion, and association. That disputes between people, and between nations, should be resolved by diplomacy, politics, and law, not violence. Russia's boosters in the West don't want to talk about any of this, because they don't have a good answer for it.
But lets say that you think moral arguments are for weaklings, globalists, neocons, warmongers and whatnot. The "warmongers/supporters of forever wars" is particularly puzzling, as this war is occuring whether we like it or not. We did not choose this war. Russia did. But no matter: thinking just in terms of cynical realpolitik, the United States has been presented with a golden opportunity to seriously weaken one of its main geopolitical rivals, get Europe to start pulling its weight on security matters, and if China starts supplying Russia, perhaps even degrade the capabilities of its other main geopolitical rivals, all at the cost of about 1/8th of the defense budget and no American troops. In the long term, Russia has been damaged by having We also get, as an ally, the largest and most experienced military in Europe (the Ukrainian one), and a very good sense of the capabilities, tactics, and limitations of the Russian army. If we stop supporting Ukraine, Russia doesn't stop there and go away. You can't feed the bear with the assumption he won't come back for more. Empires are always looking for more.
I've seen on this blog's analytics in the past that I have had readers in Russia: whether those are bots or actual people I do not know. But if an actual person happens to read this, here's what I will say: your government is lying to you, and I think you know this. Your government tells you that the West is intent on destroying you, on taking you over, and this has been its goal for a long time. The truth is that on February 1st, 2022, most people in the West didn't really care about you, one way or the other. Even in Poland, the average person may have some historical resentments towards Russia, but didn't go around voicing them all the time. Even the craziest of Polish nationalists weren't running around saying "we need to retake Moscow!" Why do we not think about Russia, one way or the other? Because we're busy. We really have better things to do than think about how to wreck Russia. Quite frankly, your government doesn't need our help wrecking it. You may think that the West is weak and decadent, because our default condition is to want to be everybody's friend while watching Netflix. But that's what Imperial Japan assumed in 1941. It didn't go well for them.
To my American readers, Ukraine is fighting something very much akin to our own War of 1812. And I think the Ukrainian cause is summed up perfectly in the rarely-sung fourth verse of our own national anthem:
O thus be it ever when freemen shall stand
Between their lov'd home and the war's desolation!
Blest with vict'ry and peace may the heav'n rescued land
Praise the power that hath made and preserv'd us a nation!
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto - "In God is our trust,"
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.
